The median bear recovers in 764 days — the error bars span 666 to 2310
Recovery-time "averages" come from a dozen observations, so their uncertainty is enormous — the 95% CI on the median 20%+ recovery is [666, 2310] days. Meanwhile half the loss is typically back in 220 days. Quote the interval and the milestones, not just the point estimate.
A dozen observations wearing a suit
“Bear markets take about two years to recover” sounds precise. The full sample behind it: 12 episodes of 20%+ since 1927. The median is 764 days, but a bootstrap 95% confidence interval on that median spans [666, 2310] days — from under two years to over six. A century of daily data feels like a lot; as a sample of bear markets, it is barely a dozen draws from a heavy-tailed process.
Milestones beat endpoints
Full recovery is also the most pessimistic way to frame the wait. From the trough, the median 20%+ episode retraces half its loss in 220 days and 90% in 383 — most of the psychological and financial relief arrives long before the old high prints. And the convention matters as much as the milestone: with dividends reinvested, the median 20%+ underwater spell shortens from 5.4 years to 2.7.
The discipline
Treat historical recovery times as expectation-setting material, not forecasts: report the interval, not just the median; report milestones, not just full recovery; and attach the measurement convention. A number computed from twelve events should never travel without its error bars.